HCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$175.01
-7.01 (-3.85%)
▼
5d:
-2.14%
30d:
-2.03%
90d:
+13.96%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.90
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $175.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $176.01 to $181.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $172.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.33 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $172.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.33 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$176.01 -
$181.72
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.2% below Wall St target ($238.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$176.01 -
$181.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.40
Resistance Level
$183.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.31
Wall Street Target
$238.33
(+36.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.78
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$172.57
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$171.36
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$174.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 1.8%)
$411.45
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 1.8%)
$184.86
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 1.8%)
$157.14
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.81
Bull Case
$164.93
(-6%)
Analyst growth -17.6%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$149.94
(-14%)
Market implied -17.6%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$123.77
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$178.50
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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