LI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
$13.63
0.14 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
+12.46%
30d:
+11.45%
90d:
-23.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.73
40.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $13.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.90 to $12.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (2.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.06, while resistance sits at $14.04.
Market Sentiment: LI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.29 (+35.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.06, while resistance sits at $14.04.
Market Sentiment: LI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.29 (+35.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.90 -
$12.96
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.6% below Wall St target ($18.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.90 -
$12.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.06
Resistance Level
$14.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.94
Wall Street Target
$18.29
(+35.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.8%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 2.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.93
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.83
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$13.71
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 1895.4%)
$489.09
(+3526%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.9, Growth: 1895.4%)
$45.53
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 1895.4%)
$38.70
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 2.7
Stabilization Target:
$18.80
(+39.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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