LI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
$13.05
0.13 (1.01%)
▲
5d:
+6.44%
30d:
+5.5%
90d:
-19.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $12.95 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.07
45.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $13.05, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.25 to $13.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.7) compared to its historical average (2.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LI scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.22 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LI scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.22 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.25 -
$13.13
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.6% below Wall St target ($18.22)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.25 -
$13.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.11
Resistance Level
$13.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.70
Wall Street Target
$18.22
(+39.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.8%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 2.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.57
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.51
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$14.51
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4489.2%)
$518.51
(+3873%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 4489.2%)
$44.04
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 4489.2%)
$37.44
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 2.6
Stabilization Target:
$19.90
(+52.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced LI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LI price and gamma walls.
