NMIH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$38.41
0.75 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
+3.14%
30d:
+1.72%
90d:
+3.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMIH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMIH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.93
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $38.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.15 to $37.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.14 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.14 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.15 -
$37.92
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.5% below Wall St target ($46.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.15 -
$37.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.12
Resistance Level
$37.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.96
Wall Street Target
$46.14
(+22.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Profit Margin
53.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.17
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$36.69
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$36.21
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$37.48
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$137.58
(+265%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$43.94
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 5.3%)
$37.35
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.92
Bull Case
$45.37
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.0%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case
$41.25
(+10%)
Market implied 10.0%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$25.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$38.98
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18953 shares
2026-03-24
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18996 shares
2026-03-19
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18976 shares
2026-03-12
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