TMUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.
$180.06
-1.61 (-0.89%)
▼
5d:
-4.78%
30d:
-5.31%
90d:
-13.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$408.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$253.85
29.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMUS is currently trading at $180.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $181.23 to $190.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $174.02, while resistance sits at $194.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $260.81 (+44.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $174.02, while resistance sits at $194.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $260.81 (+44.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$181.23 -
$190.71
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($260.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$181.23 -
$190.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$174.02
Resistance Level
$194.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.29
Wall Street Target
$260.81
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$170.88
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$162.16
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$153.89
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$179.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.4%)
$639.76
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 29.4%)
$390.50
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 29.4%)
$331.92
(+84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.41
Bull Case
$287.64
(+60%)
Analyst growth 43.9%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$261.49
(+45%)
Market implied 43.9%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$123.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$209.94
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Srikant M Datar
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-04
G Michael Sievert
SELL
1089 shares
2026-02-24
Mark Wolfe Nelson
SELL
2329 shares
2026-02-24
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