TMUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.
$189.64
2.02 (1.08%)
▲
5d:
+4.32%
30d:
+2.2%
90d:
-3.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
9d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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6 traders called TMUS this week
67% bullish • 2 bearish
67% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMUS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMUS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$402.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$250.01
24.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMUS is currently trading at $189.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $176.67 to $186.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $194.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMUS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $254.85 (+35.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $194.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMUS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $254.85 (+35.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$176.67 -
$186.51
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.8% below Wall St target ($254.85)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$176.67 -
$186.51
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$174.02
Resistance Level
$194.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.88
Wall Street Target
$254.85
(+35.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$181.42
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$175.43
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$169.64
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$186.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.3%)
$636.91
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 29.3%)
$405.97
(+116%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 29.3%)
$345.08
(+84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.47
Bull Case
$284.87
(+52%)
Analyst growth 42.7%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$258.98
(+38%)
Market implied 42.7%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$123.41
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$206.76
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Srikant M Datar
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-04
G Michael Sievert
SELL
1089 shares
2026-02-24
Mark Wolfe Nelson
SELL
2329 shares
2026-02-24
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