TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$279.58
-5.41 (-1.90%)
▼
5d:
-1.56%
30d:
-7.76%
90d:
-0.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TXN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$374.35
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$232.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $279.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $287.56 to $311.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.7) is in line with its historical norms (30.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $274.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $274.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$287.56 -
$311.63
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($307.58)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$287.56 -
$311.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$274.10
Resistance Level
$312.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.69
Wall Street Target
$307.58
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.3%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
30.7 vs 30.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$281.26
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$282.95
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$284.64
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$280.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.7, Growth: 17.1%)
$448.47
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 17.1%)
$304.06
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 17.1%)
$258.45
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.91
Bull Case
$498.75
(+78%)
Analyst growth 54.1%, PE expands to 54.8
Base Case
$453.41
(+62%)
Market implied 54.1%, PE stable at 49.8
Bear Case
$200.05
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 24, 2026 9:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-18
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
Ahmad Bahai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-02-11
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