TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$301.12
4.02 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
+5.63%
30d:
-1.7%
90d:
+57.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$361.96
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$224.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $301.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $287.91 to $310.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 33.7) compared to its historical average (29.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $273.88, while resistance sits at $312.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $273.88, while resistance sits at $312.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$287.91 -
$310.30
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($291.55)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$287.91 -
$310.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$273.88
Resistance Level
$312.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.67
Wall Street Target
$291.55
(-3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.3%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
33.7 vs 29.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$314.97
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$329.46
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$344.62
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$301.96
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.7, Growth: 16.4%)
$474.61
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$309.01
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 16.4%)
$262.66
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.13
Bull Case
$363.60
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.9
Base Case
$301.12
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.0
Bear Case
$230.36
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 9:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-18
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
Ahmad Bahai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-02-11
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXN price and gamma walls.
