UPS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$102.01
-0.57 (-0.56%)
▼
5d:
-2.38%
30d:
-10.6%
90d:
+3.83%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 20, 2026 at $102.58 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.39
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $102.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.00 to $113.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.15 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.15 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$103.00 -
$113.47
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($116.15)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 11% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.00 -
$113.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.34
Resistance Level
$105.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.62
Wall Street Target
$116.15
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 13.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.77
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$97.57
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$95.42
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$102.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.1%)
$228.18
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 12.1%)
$143.52
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 12.1%)
$121.99
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.36
Bull Case
$170.13
(+67%)
Analyst growth 50.8%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$154.66
(+52%)
Market implied 50.8%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$69.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$109.10
(+6.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-10
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