AOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOS - A.O. Smith Corporation
$63.08
0.65 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+6.03%
90d:
+10.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.74
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOS is currently trading at $63.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.79 to $63.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $63.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $69.91 (+10.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $63.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $69.91 (+10.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$59.79 -
$63.16
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($69.91)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.79 -
$63.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.56
Resistance Level
$63.94
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.40
Wall Street Target
$69.91
(+10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.95
(0%)
2-Year Target
$62.83
(0%)
3-Year Target
$62.70
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$63.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$107.72
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$82.66
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$70.26
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.51
Bull Case
$80.14
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$72.85
(+16%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$42.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$63.49
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
1104 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced AOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AOS price and gamma walls.
