CMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMI - Cummins Inc.
$664.39
-11.56 (-1.71%)
▼
5d:
-2.04%
30d:
+5.37%
90d:
+7.83%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$998.92
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$620.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMI is currently trading at $664.39, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $658.18 to $705.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $673.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $753.33 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $673.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $753.33 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$658.18 -
$705.92
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($753.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 2.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$658.18 -
$705.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$43.05
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$673.85
Resistance Level
$737.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.57
Wall Street Target
$753.33
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$668.38
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$672.39
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$676.42
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$664.22
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.9%)
$1038.79
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 13.9%)
$981.14
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 13.9%)
$833.97
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.39
Bull Case
$1233.80
(+83%)
Analyst growth 66.6%, PE expands to 38.2
Base Case
$1121.64
(+66%)
Market implied 66.6%, PE stable at 34.7
Bear Case
$457.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amy Rochelle Davis
SELL
4054 shares
2026-03-03
Donald G Jackson
SELL
1600 shares
2026-02-24
Amy Rochelle Davis
SELL
1864 shares
2026-02-23
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Advanced CMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMI price and gamma walls.
