American Public Education (APEI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APEI - American Public Education, Inc.
$48.77
-0.09 (-0.18%)
▼
5d:
-0.85%
30d:
+14.19%
90d:
-1.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: APEI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: APEI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.74
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.17
22.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APEI is currently trading at $48.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.48 to $48.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 129.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: APEI scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Implied Volatility is high (80th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+28.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: APEI scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Implied Volatility is high (80th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+28.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.48 -
$48.35
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
80th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APEI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 80th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.8% below Wall St target ($62.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.48 -
$48.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.98
(10.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.35
Resistance Level
$50.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.97
Wall Street Target
$62.83
(+28.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
129.3%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 14.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.45
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$46.17
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$44.93
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$48.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.3%)
$143.40
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 24.3%)
$93.66
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 24.3%)
$79.61
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.48
Bull Case
$81.49
(+67%)
Analyst growth 51.6%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$74.08
(+52%)
Market implied 51.6%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$33.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$53.02
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 3:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APEI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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APEI is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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Advanced APEI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APEI price and gamma walls.