APEI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APEI - American Public Education, Inc.
$46.25
0.64 (1.40%)
â˛
5d:
+4.38%
30d:
-3.06%
90d:
-10.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: APEI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: APEI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.34
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.41
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APEI is currently trading at $46.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.35 to $51.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 129.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $43.23, while resistance sits at $50.88.
Market Sentiment: APEI scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+35.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APEI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $43.23, while resistance sits at $50.88.
Market Sentiment: APEI scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+35.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$45.35 -
$51.09
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APEI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.9% below Wall St target ($62.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.35 -
$51.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$4.61
(10.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.23
Resistance Level
$50.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.30
Wall Street Target
$62.83
(+35.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
129.3%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.71
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$41.30
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$39.03
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â15)
$46.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 24.3%)
$144.77
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 24.3%)
$88.82
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 24.3%)
$75.49
(+63%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.47
Bull Case
$76.37
(+65%)
Analyst growth 52.2%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$69.43
(+50%)
Market implied 52.2%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$31.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$54.90
(+18.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 25, 2026 3:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APEI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
325 Capital Llc
SELL
65000 shares
2026-03-20
325 Capital Llc
SELL
95512 shares
2026-03-19
Nuno S Fernandes
SELL
1100 shares
2026-03-19
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Advanced APEI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APEI price and gamma walls.