AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$37.94
0.28 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
+1.53%
30d:
+8.18%
90d:
+2.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 12, 2026 at $37.48 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.09
17.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $37.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.99 to $36.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 79.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AR scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.40 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AR scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.40 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.99 -
$36.98
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($49.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.99 -
$36.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.14
Resistance Level
$38.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.76
Wall Street Target
$49.40
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.9%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.86
(0%)
2-Year Target
$37.79
(0%)
3-Year Target
$37.71
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$37.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 59.5%)
$88.49
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 59.5%)
$38.62
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 59.5%)
$32.83
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.49
Bull Case
$51.41
(+36%)
Analyst growth 24.1%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$46.74
(+23%)
Market implied 24.1%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$25.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$38.12
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Benjamin A Hardesty
SELL
12000 shares
2026-03-19
Yvette K Schultz
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-09
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AR price and gamma walls.
