COP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$120.48
1.45 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
+0.18%
30d:
+16.72%
90d:
-4.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: COP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.66
Based on -0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $120.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.17 to $117.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $122.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.00 (+17.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $122.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.00 (+17.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$106.17 -
$117.16
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($141.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$106.17 -
$117.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.21
Resistance Level
$122.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.38
Wall Street Target
$141.00
(+17.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.2%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.90
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$111.50
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$107.26
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$120.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -5.8%)
$155.81
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -5.8%)
$100.60
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: -5.8%)
$85.51
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.95
Bull Case
$198.08
(+64%)
Analyst growth 51.3%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$180.07
(+50%)
Market implied 51.3%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$80.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$135.02
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan Michael Lance
SELL
113221 shares
2026-03-31
Kelly Brunetti Rose
SELL
7700 shares
2026-03-24
Nicholas G Olds
SELL
6994 shares
2026-03-23
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
