COP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$134.87
-0.02 (-0.01%)
▼
5d:
+6.38%
30d:
+12.2%
90d:
+11.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $117.61 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.71
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $134.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.01 to $126.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 107.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $135.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $135.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$114.01 -
$126.99
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Protect Your Profits
COP is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($144.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.01 -
$126.99
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.17
Resistance Level
$135.88
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.27
Wall Street Target
$144.29
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
107.0%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 14.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.98
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$131.12
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$129.28
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$134.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -8.9%)
$143.54
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: -8.9%)
$102.06
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: -8.9%)
$86.75
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.81
Bull Case
$179.55
(+33%)
Analyst growth 21.0%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$163.23
(+21%)
Market implied 21.0%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$91.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$140.82
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan Michael Lance
SELL
113221 shares
2026-03-31
Kelly Brunetti Rose
SELL
7700 shares
2026-03-24
Nicholas G Olds
SELL
6994 shares
2026-03-23
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
