CNQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$42.63
0.82 (1.96%)
▲
5d:
+8.34%
30d:
-6.35%
90d:
-8.03%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
23d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CNQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CNQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.31
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNQ is currently trading at $42.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.89 to $45.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.80, while resistance sits at $46.76.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.31 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.80, while resistance sits at $46.76.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.31 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.89 -
$45.63
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.89 -
$45.63
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.81
Resistance Level
$46.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.11
Wall Street Target
$46.31
(+10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.3%
Profit Margin
25.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$33.87
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$30.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$42.46
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -13.4%)
$81.85
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: -13.4%)
$30.48
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -13.4%)
$25.91
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.60
Bull Case
$65.97
(+58%)
Analyst growth 43.2%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$59.97
(+43%)
Market implied 43.2%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$28.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$58.25
(+39.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CNQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CNQ price and gamma walls.
