CNQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$51.40
0.37 (0.73%)
▲
5d:
+7.15%
30d:
+9.34%
90d:
+5.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CNQ shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CNQ shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.13
Based on -3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNQ is currently trading at $51.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.03 to $48.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CNQ scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CNQ scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.03 -
$48.69
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Protect Your Profits
CNQ is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.6% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($50.69)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.03 -
$48.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.24
Resistance Level
$51.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.65
Wall Street Target
$50.69
(-1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
69.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.8%
Profit Margin
26.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.29
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$47.27
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$45.33
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$51.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -10.3%)
$77.92
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: -10.3%)
$37.47
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: -10.3%)
$31.85
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$73.82
(+44%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$67.11
(+31%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$34.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$58.05
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CNQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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