CAE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAE - CAE INC
$24.85
-0.08 (-0.32%)
▼
5d:
-1.58%
30d:
-7.76%
90d:
-8.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CAE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CAE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.63
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAE is currently trading at $24.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.59 to $26.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (21.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CAE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.18 (+29.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CAE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.18 (+29.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.59 -
$26.14
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($32.18)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.59 -
$26.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.59
Resistance Level
$26.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.03
Wall Street Target
$32.18
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.2%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 21.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.45
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$24.06
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$23.68
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$24.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.9%)
$30.34
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 3.9%)
$27.90
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 3.9%)
$23.72
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.68
Bull Case
$50.04
(+101%)
Analyst growth 82.5%, PE expands to 40.3
Base Case
$45.49
(+83%)
Market implied 82.5%, PE stable at 36.7
Bear Case
$16.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.0 to 21.0
Stabilization Target:
$26.06
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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