CHKP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
$136.54
-1.56 (-1.13%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.47%
30d:
+0.22%
90d:
+0.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
16d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $133.44 · last confirmed Oct 15, 2026
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHKP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHKP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$200.25
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$124.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHKP is currently trading at $136.53, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.18 to $137.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHKP scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHKP scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$130.18 -
$137.27
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHKP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($145.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.18 -
$137.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.50
Resistance Level
$139.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.23
Wall Street Target
$145.83
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Profit Margin
37.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$134.65
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$131.28
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$128.00
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â13)
$138.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$283.66
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 8.2%)
$174.73
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 8.2%)
$148.52
(+8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.77
Bull Case
$170.41
(+23%)
Analyst growth 15.5%, PE expands to 15.1
Base Case
$154.92
(+12%)
Market implied 15.5%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$91.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$149.01
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 16, 2026 10:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHKP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CHKP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHKP price and gamma walls.
