CSWC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSWC - Capital Southwest Corp
$22.98
0.14 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
-1.88%
30d:
-0.61%
90d:
+4.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CSWC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CSWC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.22
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $22.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.06 to $23.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CSWC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CSWC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$23.06 -
$23.59
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.06 -
$23.59
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.84
Resistance Level
$23.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.09
Wall Street Target
$24.90
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Profit Margin
48.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.03
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$23.07
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$23.12
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.9%)
$42.72
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: -4.9%)
$19.78
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -4.9%)
$16.81
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$30.13
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$27.39
(+19%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$15.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 19, 2026 9:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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