CSWC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSWC - Capital Southwest Corp
$24.59
-0.05 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
-1.84%
30d:
+3.06%
90d:
+5.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: CSWC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: CSWC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.44
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $24.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.63 to $24.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$23.63 -
$24.81
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.63 -
$24.81
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.25
Resistance Level
$25.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.79
Wall Street Target
$25.30
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.11
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$25.63
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$26.17
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -4.9%)
$39.44
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: -4.9%)
$21.17
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: -4.9%)
$17.99
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.79
Bull Case
$34.50
(+40%)
Analyst growth 27.3%, PE expands to 15.1
Base Case
$31.36
(+28%)
Market implied 27.3%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$16.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 18, 2026 9:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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