Capital Southwest (CSWC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSWC - Capital Southwest Corp
$23.08
-0.44 (-1.87%)
▼
5d:
-1.95%
30d:
-3.87%
90d:
-3.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CSWC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CSWC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.66
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $23.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.19 to $23.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$23.19 -
$23.93
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.08)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.19 -
$23.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.05
Resistance Level
$23.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.13
Wall Street Target
$25.08
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.8%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.01
(0%)
2-Year Target
$22.94
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$22.87
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$23.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.9%)
$38.95
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: -4.9%)
$19.87
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -4.9%)
$16.89
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.81
Bull Case
$32.57
(+41%)
Analyst growth 25.9%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$29.61
(+28%)
Market implied 25.9%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$15.99
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$23.24
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 17, 2026 10:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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