Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$29.16
-1.56 (-5.08%)
▼
5d:
-8.39%
30d:
-13.73%
90d:
-41.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
8d
Get Alerted When CVLG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVLG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVLG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.14
29.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $29.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.45 to $34.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.50 (+69.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.50 (+69.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.45 -
$34.71
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (16/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 69.8% below Wall St target ($49.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.45 -
$34.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.06
Resistance Level
$33.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.06
Wall Street Target
$49.50
(+69.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.1%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.73
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$26.37
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$25.08
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$29.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 63.1%)
$176.79
(+506%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 63.1%)
$98.41
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 63.1%)
$83.65
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.22 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.05
Bull Case
$35.21
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$29.16
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$22.31
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$34.02
(+16.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 19, 2026 8:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Trucking Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Trucking by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
XPO
XPO Logistics Inc |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$225 | 55 HOLD |
|
KNX
Knight Transportation Inc |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$85 | 57 HOLD |
|
TFII
TFI International Inc |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$158 | 63 BUY |
|
SAIA
Saia Inc |
BUY
21 analysts |
$420 | 46 HOLD |
|
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Lin… |
HOLD
24 analysts |
$221 | 47 HOLD |
