CVX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVX - Chevron Corporation
$165.69
-0.07 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
-3.36%
30d:
-10.84%
90d:
-19.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$189.30
Based on -4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVX is currently trading at $165.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $172.69 to $187.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $180.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.14 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $180.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.14 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$172.69 -
$187.90
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($217.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$172.69 -
$187.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$180.40
Resistance Level
$192.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.12
Wall Street Target
$217.14
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.5%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 18.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.12
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$134.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$120.79
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→19)
$171.19
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -12.1%)
$200.46
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -12.1%)
$120.79
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: -12.1%)
$102.67
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.74
Bull Case
$364.67
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$331.52
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$112.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$234.83
(+41.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 02, 2026 3:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
R. Hewitt Pate
SELL
40200 shares
2026-03-30
David Taylor
SELL
2026-03-12
David Taylor
SELL
2026-03-11
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