Is CVX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CVX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of CVX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CVX to be between $191.49 and $206.46. The current price is $209.13.

What is the analyst price target for CVX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CVX is $218.29. This implies a potential upside of 3.3% from current levels.

CVX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CVX - Chevron Corporation

PETROLEUM REFINING

$209.13

-2.19 (-1.04%) ▼

5d: +3.6%

30d: +10.52%

90d: +11.65%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 31, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 2, 2026 at $211.78 · last confirmed Sep 4, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -16.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$165.31

Based on -6.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$102.65

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CVX is currently trading at $209.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $191.49 to $206.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 321.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $213.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $191.49 - $206.46

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($218.29)
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $191.49 - $206.46

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $197.82

Resistance Level $213.20

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 3, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.96

Wall Street Target $218.29 (+3.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 53.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 321.9%

Profit Margin 9.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.0 vs 17.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $204.14 (-3%)

2-Year Target $197.19 (-7%)

3-Year Target $190.49 (-10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→18) $211.26 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -16.9%) $195.27 (+-8%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: -16.9%) $154.05 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 13.6, Growth: -16.9%) $130.94 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 20.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.42

Bull Case $296.03 (+40%)

Analyst growth 27.1%, PE expands to 22.4

Base Case $269.12 (+27%)

Market implied 27.1%, PE stable at 20.3

Bear Case $144.01 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 17.7

Stabilization Target: $234.37 (+10.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +10.9%

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Last updated: September 04, 2026 1:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

R. Hewitt Pate SELL 40200 shares 2026-03-30

David Taylor SELL 2026-03-12

David Taylor SELL 2026-03-11

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