What is the fair value of CVX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CVX to be between $208.21 and $229.11. The current price is $226.37.

What is the analyst price target for CVX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CVX is $232.50. This implies a potential upside of 2.1% from current levels.

Chevron (CVX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CVX - Chevron Corporation

PETROLEUM REFINING

$226.37

-1.40 (-0.61%) ▼

5d: -0.81%

30d: +9.64%

90d: +21.44%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Nov 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 30, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $227.77 · last confirmed Nov 3, 2026

Strength: 3.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: CVX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -9.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$232.50

Based on -2.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$144.37

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CVX is currently trading at $226.37, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.21 to $229.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 178.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $221.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: CVX scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $208.21 - $229.11

Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 38.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($232.50)
WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $208.21 - $229.11

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $221.56

Resistance Level $236.48

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Nov 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.41

Wall Street Target $232.50 (+2.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 39.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 178.0%

Profit Margin 11.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 14.4 vs 17.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $214.79 (-6%)

2-Year Target $202.54 (-11%)

3-Year Target $191.00 (-16%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→17) $227.92 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -9.9%) $229.66 (+1%)

Base: (SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: -9.9%) $166.68 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 12.3, Growth: -9.9%) $141.68 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 17.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.62

Bull Case $300.58 (+32%)

Analyst growth 16.0%, PE expands to 19.0

Base Case $273.25 (+20%)

Market implied 16.0%, PE stable at 17.3

Bear Case $160.15 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 17.2

Stabilization Target: $271.79 (+19.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +19.3%

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Last updated: November 03, 2026 12:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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