CVX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVX - Chevron Corporation
$196.83
4.52 (2.35%)
▲
5d:
+1.05%
30d:
+18.79%
90d:
+1.82%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.18
Based on -4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVX is currently trading at $196.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.99 to $190.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $197.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $197.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$170.99 -
$190.51
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($215.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$170.99 -
$190.51
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$185.93
Resistance Level
$197.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.52
Wall Street Target
$215.00
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.5%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$187.19
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$178.01
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$169.29
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$196.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -13.9%)
$191.70
(+-3%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: -13.9%)
$143.49
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: -13.9%)
$121.97
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.75
Bull Case
$423.08
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.8
Base Case
$384.62
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.5
Bear Case
$130.77
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$228.33
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
R. Hewitt Pate
SELL
40200 shares
2026-03-30
David Taylor
SELL
2026-03-12
David Taylor
SELL
2026-03-11
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Advanced CVX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVX price and gamma walls.
