EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$15.58
-0.40 (-2.50%)
▼
5d:
+4.42%
30d:
+11.05%
90d:
+34.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 03, 2026
0d
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1 traders called EC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.84
Based on -10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $15.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.08 to $14.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.48, while resistance sits at $16.45.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $12.71. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.48, while resistance sits at $16.45.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $12.71. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.08 -
$14.93
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.4% above Wall St target ($12.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.08 -
$14.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.49
Resistance Level
$16.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.73
Wall Street Target
$12.71
(-18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.42
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$15.27
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$15.12
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$15.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -25.2%)
$25.57
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: -25.2%)
$11.36
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -25.2%)
$9.65
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$19.68
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$17.89
(+21%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$10.15
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$16.01
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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