ETSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$80.67
1.04 (1.31%)
â˛
5d:
-1.93%
30d:
-5.91%
90d:
+40.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $79.97 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ETSY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ETSY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$162.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.20
20.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $80.67, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.07 to $84.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.85, while resistance sits at $87.97.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.85, while resistance sits at $87.97.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$79.07 -
$84.89
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ETSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($85.92)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.07 -
$84.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.85
Resistance Level
$87.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.02
Wall Street Target
$85.92
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.70
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$78.75
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$77.80
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â19)
$80.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 30.2%)
$199.98
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 30.2%)
$178.17
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 30.2%)
$151.44
(+88%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.17
Bull Case
$123.67
(+53%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$112.43
(+39%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$54.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$83.70
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 14, 2026 12:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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Advanced ETSY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ETSY price and gamma walls.
