Etsy (ETSY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$76.93
0.22 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
+8.52%
30d:
+5.73%
90d:
-7.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
21d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $75.14 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ETSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ETSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$161.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$100.58
23.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $76.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.15 to $75.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.33 (+14.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.33 (+14.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$70.15 -
$75.88
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ETSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($88.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.15 -
$75.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.68
Resistance Level
$78.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.92
Wall Street Target
$88.33
(+14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.93
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$72.98
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$71.08
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$76.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 31.9%)
$207.02
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 31.9%)
$176.42
(+129%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 31.9%)
$149.96
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.42
Bull Case
$112.15
(+46%)
Analyst growth 32.9%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$101.96
(+33%)
Market implied 32.9%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$52.16
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$83.18
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 13, 2026 2:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:04 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Josh Silverman
SELL
70000 shares
2026-04-21
Josh Silverman
SELL
30369 shares
2026-04-20
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Advanced ETSY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ETSY price and gamma walls.
