FDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDX - FedEx Corporation
$331.00
3.00 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
-19.61%
30d:
-12.25%
90d:
-7.83%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
15d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$506.90
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$314.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $331.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $351.00 to $400.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $321.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $384.98 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $321.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $384.98 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$351.00 -
$400.53
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FDX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($384.98)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-19.6%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$351.00 -
$400.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$321.81
Resistance Level
$413.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.05
Wall Street Target
$384.98
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$324.38
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$317.89
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$311.53
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$331.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$662.33
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 11.2%)
$454.90
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 11.2%)
$386.67
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.73
Bull Case
$423.66
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.4%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$385.15
(+16%)
Market implied 17.4%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$223.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$351.94
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 07, 2026 11:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy B Brightman
SELL
16959 shares
2026-04-15
Susan C Schwab
SELL
5795 shares
2026-04-15
Gina F Adams
SELL
20450 shares
2026-04-14
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