FedEx (FDX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FDX - FedEx Corporation

AIR COURIER SERVICES
$322.52
-1.79 (-0.55%) ▼
5d: -2.53%
30d: +2.11%
90d: -2.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 12, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 2, 2026 at $316.54 · last confirmed Sep 3, 2026

Strength: 4.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: FDX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$333.37
Based on 1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$207.00
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $322.52, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $313.55 to $332.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.5) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $315.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $356.37 (+10.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $313.55 - $332.12
Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 73.3%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($356.37)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 12.5% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $313.55 - $332.12
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $315.33
Resistance Level $340.83
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Sep 4, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.54
Wall Street Target $356.37 (+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -4.3%
Profit Margin 4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.8% premium
PE vs Historical 16.5 vs 16.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $325.10 (+1%)
2-Year Target $327.70 (+2%)
3-Year Target $330.32 (+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→16) PE COMPRESSION $323.59 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -1.8%) $373.79 (+16%)
Base: (SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: -1.8%) $305.55 (-5%)
Bear: (PE: 14.1, Growth: -1.8%) $259.72 (-20%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.00
Bull Case $366.19 (+14%)
Analyst growth 2.6%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case $332.90 (+3%)
Market implied 2.6%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case $220.53 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 05, 2026 5:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check

Is FDX showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy B Brightman SELL 16959 shares 2026-04-15
Susan C Schwab SELL 5795 shares 2026-04-15
Gina F Adams SELL 20450 shares 2026-04-14

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