The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$39.01
0.48 (1.25%)
▲
5d:
+2.42%
30d:
-2.69%
90d:
-21.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GBX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GBX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.10
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.63
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $39.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.95 to $40.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GBX scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GBX scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.95 -
$40.81
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 78/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.95 -
$40.81
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.35
Resistance Level
$39.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.69
Wall Street Target
$42.00
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.9%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.07
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$37.16
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$36.27
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$39.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$128.40
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 21.0%)
$69.10
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 21.0%)
$58.73
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$62.13
(+59%)
Analyst growth 46.6%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$56.48
(+45%)
Market implied 46.6%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$26.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$41.98
(+7.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: November 02, 2026 12:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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