GBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$42.75
0.75 (1.79%)
▲
5d:
-7.55%
30d:
-15.04%
90d:
-8.77%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GBX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GBX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.17
22.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $42.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.59 to $49.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.27, while resistance sits at $46.67.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.27, while resistance sits at $46.67.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$44.59 -
$49.24
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.59 -
$49.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.27
Resistance Level
$46.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.96
Wall Street Target
$45.33
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.7%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.90
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$41.06
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$40.24
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$42.95
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 28.6%)
$167.69
(+292%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 28.6%)
$90.86
(+113%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 28.6%)
$77.23
(+81%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$57.20
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$52.00
(+22%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$28.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$45.63
(+6.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 03, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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