Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSBD - Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
$8.73
-0.19 (-2.13%)
▼
5d:
-0.46%
30d:
-12.61%
90d:
+0.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GSBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GSBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.50
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSBD is currently trading at $8.73, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.95 to $9.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSBD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GSBD scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSBD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GSBD scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.95 -
$9.73
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (83/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.94)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 83/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.95 -
$9.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.59
Resistance Level
$9.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.59
Wall Street Target
$8.94
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.2%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.62
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$8.50
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$8.39
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$8.74
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -11.2%)
$16.65
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: -11.2%)
$6.36
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -11.2%)
$5.41
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$19.62
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$17.84
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$6.07
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$9.08
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 18, 2026 11:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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