HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$35.21
-0.06 (-0.17%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.96%
30d:
+4.48%
90d:
+16.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.08
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $35.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.40 to $35.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.40 -
$35.96
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with 13.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.40 -
$35.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.51
Resistance Level
$37.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.50
Wall Street Target
$36.43
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.72
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$38.30
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$39.95
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -6.4%)
$78.04
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -6.4%)
$28.92
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -6.4%)
$24.58
(-30%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.73
Bull Case
$31.80
(-10%)
Analyst growth -18.0%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$28.91
(-18%)
Market implied -18.0%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$23.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 14, 2026 7:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Bradley E Cooper
BUY
99 shares
2026-04-08
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