HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$34.86
0.34 (0.98%)
â˛
5d:
+2.05%
30d:
+0.03%
90d:
+0.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.39
Based on -0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $34.86, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.60 to $35.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$33.60 -
$35.06
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.29)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 13.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.60 -
$35.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.87
Resistance Level
$35.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.32
Wall Street Target
$38.29
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.84
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$36.84
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$37.87
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.65
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -5.8%)
$78.94
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -5.8%)
$29.11
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: -5.8%)
$24.74
(-29%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.72
Bull Case
$31.60
(-9%)
Analyst growth -16.8%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$28.73
(-18%)
Market implied -16.8%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$23.47
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 13, 2026 8:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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