Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HON is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$359.94
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$223.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: HON is currently trading at $233.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $225.63 to $244.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (20.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HON is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $228.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $263.11 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$225.63 -
$244.36
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
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Honeywell traces its roots to 1885 with Albert Butz's firm, Butz Thermo-Electric Regulator, which produced a predecessor to the modern thermostat. Other inventions by Honeywell include biodegradable detergent and autopilot. Today, Honeywell is a global multi-industry behemoth with one of the largest installed bases of equipment. It operates through four business segments: aerospace technologies (37% of 2023 company revenue), industrial automation (29%), energy and sustainability solutions (17%), and building automation (17%). Recently, Honeywell has made several portfolio changes to focus on fewer end markets and align with a set of secular growth trends. The firm is working diligently to expand its installed base, deriving around 30% of its revenue from recurring aftermarket services.
