Jakks Pacific (JAKK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$28.53
-0.51 (-1.76%)
▼
5d:
+1.06%
30d:
+17.26%
90d:
+18.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JAKK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JAKK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $28.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.26 to $27.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.88, while resistance sits at $29.43.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.88, while resistance sits at $29.43.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.26 -
$27.69
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.4% growth with 16.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.26 -
$27.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.88
Resistance Level
$29.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.74
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(-0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 6.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.93
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$33.52
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$36.34
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.70
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 64.1%)
$218.84
(+667%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 64.1%)
$96.29
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 64.1%)
$76.03
(+167%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$63.89
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$58.08
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$19.75
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 19, 2026 7:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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