JAKK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$25.39
0.10 (0.40%)
â˛
5d:
+0.91%
30d:
+4.01%
90d:
+19.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JAKK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JAKK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.06
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $25.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.03 to $26.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+12.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+12.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.03 -
$26.20
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.4% growth with 16.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.03 -
$26.20
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.51
Resistance Level
$26.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.78
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 6.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.76
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$28.21
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$29.73
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.23
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 64.1%)
$221.16
(+771%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 64.1%)
$85.69
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 64.1%)
$72.73
(+186%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40
Bull Case
$55.64
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$50.58
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$17.20
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 20, 2026 6:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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