What is the fair value of MELI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MELI to be between $1754.00 and $1943.97. The current price is $1889.85.

What is the analyst price target for MELI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MELI is $2275.78. This implies a potential upside of 20.4% from current levels.

Mercado Libre (MELI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MELI - Mercado Libre, Inc

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$1889.85

33.19 (1.79%) ▲

5d: +11.39%

30d: -0.86%

90d: +1.21%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MELI Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 22d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $1823.99 · last confirmed Oct 7, 2026

Strength: 5.9/10

Get Alerted When MELI Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MELI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$2704.05

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1679.00

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MELI is currently trading at $1889.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1754.00 to $1943.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.0) compared to its historical average (30.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1892.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: MELI scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2275.78 (+20.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $1754.00 - $1943.97

Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 53.3%

Protect Your Profits

Holding MELI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($2275.78)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.1% growth with 49.8% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1754.00 - $1943.97

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1668.44

Resistance Level $1892.57

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 34.02

Wall Street Target $2275.78 (+20.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 49.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -10.9%

Profit Margin 5.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.1% premium

PE vs Historical 34.0 vs 30.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1967.33 (+4%)

2-Year Target $2047.99 (+8%)

3-Year Target $2131.96 (+13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 34→30) PE COMPRESSION $1892.29 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 34.0, Growth: 45.1%) $5772.66 (+206%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 45.1%) $3369.43 (+78%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 45.1%) $2864.02 (+52%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 32.79 | Forward EPS (Implied): $57.64

Bull Case $2281.99 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.4

Base Case $1889.85 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.8

Bear Case $1445.74 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: October 12, 2026 6:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 AM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is MELI showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

NEUTRAL

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for MELI.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Internet Retail Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Internet Retail by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd	STRONG BUY 40 analysts	$186	61 BUY
SE Sea Ltd	STRONG BUY 29 analysts	$155	66 BUY
AMZN Amazon.com Inc	STRONG BUY 60 analysts	$332	56 HOLD
JD JD.com Inc Adr	STRONG BUY 36 analysts	$39	59 HOLD
DASH DoorDash, Inc. Class A C…	STRONG BUY 45 analysts	$257	65 BUY

BABA Alibaba Group Hol…

DASH DoorDash, Inc. Cl…

65 BUY

Advanced MELI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MELI price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for MELI

MELI Technical Chart MELI Price Prediction MELI Earnings Date MELI Investment Advisor MELI Fair Price Analyzer MELI Options Advisor MELI Options Chain MELI Options Analysis MELI Competitors

Compare MELI with Peers

MELI vs SHOP
Which one to buy?

MELI vs TTD
Which one to buy?

MELI vs SE
Which one to buy?

MELI vs CRWD
Which one to buy?

MELI vs DDOG
Which one to buy?

MELI vs RELY

MELI vs NVDA

CSCO vs MELI
Winner: CSCO

ASML vs MELI

AEHR vs MELI
Winner: MELI

GEHC vs MELI

KLAC vs MELI

PDD vs MELI
Winner: PDD

BKNG vs MELI

EPWK vs MELI

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie