MELI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MELI - Mercado Libre, Inc
$1589.60
-20.40 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
+1.77%
90d:
-4.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MELI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MELI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2795.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1735.64
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MELI is currently trading at $1589.60, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1570.38 to $1720.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.7) is in line with its historical norms (29.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1546.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MELI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2216.96 (+39.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1546.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MELI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2216.96 (+39.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$1570.38 -
$1720.85
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.5% below Wall St target ($2216.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1570.38 -
$1720.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$100.14
(6.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1546.00
Resistance Level
$1733.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.69
Wall Street Target
$2216.96
(+39.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.6%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.7 vs 29.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1562.58
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$1536.01
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$1509.90
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→29)
$1587.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.7, Growth: 43.7%)
$4716.46
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 43.7%)
$3734.27
(+135%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 43.7%)
$3174.13
(+100%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $37.84
Bull Case
$2687.23
(+69%)
Analyst growth 51.7%, PE expands to 46.8
Base Case
$2442.93
(+54%)
Market implied 51.7%, PE stable at 42.6
Bear Case
$1094.80
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.7 to 29.1
Stabilization Target:
$1670.82
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 6:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MELI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-16
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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Advanced MELI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MELI price and gamma walls.