MELI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MELI - Mercado Libre, Inc
$1828.29
-111.71 (-5.76%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.9%
30d:
-2.43%
90d:
+15.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $1820.69 · last confirmed Aug 12, 2026
Strength: 5.4/10
Get Alerted When MELI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MELI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MELI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2746.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1705.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MELI is currently trading at $1828.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1770.43 to $1880.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.4) compared to its historical average (29.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1766.05, while resistance sits at $1946.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2252.38 (+23.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1766.05, while resistance sits at $1946.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2252.38 (+23.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1770.43 -
$1880.67
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MELI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($2252.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with 49.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1770.43 -
$1880.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1766.05
Resistance Level
$1946.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.41
Wall Street Target
$2252.38
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
32.4 vs 29.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1888.62
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$1950.95
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$2015.33
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32â29)
PE COMPRESSION
$1828.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.4, Growth: 46.3%)
$5723.23
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 46.3%)
$3572.52
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 46.3%)
$3036.64
(+66%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $38.99
Bull Case
$3087.62
(+69%)
Analyst growth 44.7%, PE expands to 54.7
Base Case
$2806.93
(+54%)
Market implied 44.7%, PE stable at 49.8
Bear Case
$1319.20
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 6:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MELI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-16
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
Top Rated Internet Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Internet Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
JD
JD.com Inc Adr |
STRONG BUY
38 analysts |
$40 | 42 HOLD |
|
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc |
STRONG BUY
70 analysts |
$326 | 40 HOLD |
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd |
STRONG BUY
40 analysts |
$190 | 37 SELL |
|
SE
Sea Ltd |
STRONG BUY
35 analysts |
$142 | 41 HOLD |
|
PDD
PDD Holdings Inc. |
BUY
35 analysts |
$117 | 53 HOLD |
Advanced MELI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MELI price and gamma walls.