ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$210.97
-4.76 (-2.21%)
▼
5d:
-2.49%
30d:
-11.04%
90d:
+6.12%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$249.28
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$154.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $210.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $213.29 to $230.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.0) is in line with its historical norms (33.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $207.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ODFL scores 89/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $207.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ODFL scores 89/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$213.29 -
$230.72
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ODFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (89/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($231.68)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$213.29 -
$230.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$207.65
Resistance Level
$220.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.03
Wall Street Target
$231.68
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.0 vs 33.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$208.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$205.52
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$202.85
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→33)
$210.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$308.04
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.4%)
$194.54
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 13.4%)
$165.36
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.29
Bull Case
$295.44
(+40%)
Analyst growth 24.5%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$268.58
(+27%)
Market implied 24.5%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$146.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.0 to 33.3
Stabilization Target:
$219.31
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 15, 2026 2:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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