Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$183.17
1.26 (0.69%)
▲
5d:
+2.89%
30d:
+0.69%
90d:
-18.67%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ODFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ODFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$254.61
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$158.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $183.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.12 to $182.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.5) compared to its historical average (32.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $183.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.38 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $183.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.38 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$175.12 -
$182.47
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ODFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($222.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.12 -
$182.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.75
Resistance Level
$183.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.54
Wall Street Target
$222.38
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.5 vs 32.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.65
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$164.62
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$156.06
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→32)
$183.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.5, Growth: 13.9%)
$270.88
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.9%)
$195.35
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 13.9%)
$166.05
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.20
Bull Case
$255.95
(+40%)
Analyst growth 27.9%, PE expands to 38.5
Base Case
$232.68
(+27%)
Market implied 27.9%, PE stable at 35.0
Bear Case
$123.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.5 to 32.3
Stabilization Target:
$214.84
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 14, 2026 5:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ODFL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ODFL price and gamma walls.
