POOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
POOL - Pool Corporation
$185.46
2.70 (1.48%)
▲
5d:
-1.55%
30d:
-8.84%
90d:
+2.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: POOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: POOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$285.92
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$177.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: POOL is currently trading at $185.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $185.95 to $199.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $181.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: POOL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.50 (+20.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $181.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: POOL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.50 (+20.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$185.95 -
$199.77
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
36th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 36th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.1% below Wall St target ($219.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$185.95 -
$199.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.60
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$181.56
Resistance Level
$197.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.46
Wall Street Target
$219.50
(+20.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$172.89
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$163.55
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$154.72
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$183.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$294.68
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 7.5%)
$226.73
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$192.72
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.89
Bull Case
$222.65
(+22%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$202.41
(+11%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$126.83
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$216.27
(+18.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 02, 2026 11:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is POOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
De La Mesa Manuel J Perez
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced POOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's POOL price and gamma walls.
