SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$23.62
-0.33 (-1.36%)
▼
5d:
-0.36%
30d:
+4.44%
90d:
+12.83%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.44
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $23.61, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.80 to $23.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.80 -
$23.76
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.80 -
$23.76
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.33
Resistance Level
$24.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.88
Wall Street Target
$25.00
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.75
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$25.60
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$26.47
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$54.82
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$29.66
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 7.4%)
$25.21
(+5%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 18, 2026 12:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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