SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$21.90
0.19 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-1.31%
30d:
+5.19%
90d:
+17.11%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.21
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $21.90, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.91 to $21.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$20.91 -
$21.90
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.91 -
$21.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.71
Resistance Level
$22.18
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.98
Wall Street Target
$23.57
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
82.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.14
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$22.38
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$22.63
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.1%)
$57.10
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 6.1%)
$26.18
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 6.1%)
$22.25
(+2%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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