Simmons First National (SFNC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$22.07
-0.19 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-0.5%
30d:
-3.52%
90d:
-2.39%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFNC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFNC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.80
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $22.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.33 to $23.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.93 (+17.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFNC scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.93 (+17.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.33 -
$23.07
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.93)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.33 -
$23.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.78
Resistance Level
$22.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.48
Wall Street Target
$25.93
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.76
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$21.46
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$21.16
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$22.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.3%)
$67.18
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 13.3%)
$32.08
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 13.3%)
$27.27
(+24%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$23.04
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 17, 2026 2:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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