SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$263.11
21.28 (8.80%)
â˛
5d:
+8.36%
30d:
+18.83%
90d:
-7.67%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SIMO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -13.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SIMO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -13.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$714.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$443.35
40.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $263.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $234.73 to $270.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.2) compared to its historical average (23.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 733.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $238.54, while resistance sits at $275.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+52.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $238.54, while resistance sits at $275.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+52.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$234.73 -
$270.65
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.9% below Wall St target ($369.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$234.73 -
$270.65
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$238.54
Resistance Level
$275.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.24
Wall Street Target
$369.70
(+52.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
127.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
733.8%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 23.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$217.65
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$195.88
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$176.29
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â23)
$267.29
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 42.5%)
$921.72
(+281%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 42.5%)
$700.40
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 42.5%)
$595.34
(+146%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.04
Bull Case
$528.10
(+101%)
Analyst growth 97.4%, PE expands to 33.3
Base Case
$480.09
(+83%)
Market implied 97.4%, PE stable at 30.3
Bear Case
$165.36
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 23.1
Stabilization Target:
$366.66
(+51.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 27, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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