SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$305.28
-19.98 (-6.14%)
▼
5d:
-5.09%
30d:
+7.12%
90d:
+174.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SIMO trades at premium valuation expecting 9.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SIMO trades at premium valuation expecting 9.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$386.35
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$239.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $305.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $255.98 to $300.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.9) compared to its historical average (22.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $260.00, while resistance sits at $355.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $256.70. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $260.00, while resistance sits at $355.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $256.70. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$255.98 -
$300.05
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading 15.9% above Wall St target ($256.70)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 9.2% growth expectation is conservative given 239% recent growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$255.98 -
$300.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.00
Resistance Level
$355.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.88
Wall Street Target
$256.70
(-15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
105.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
238.7%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.2% premium
PE vs Historical
29.9 vs 22.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$333.37
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$364.04
(+19%)
3-Year Target
$397.53
(+30%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$304.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.9, Growth: 17.3%)
$492.09
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.3%)
$358.72
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.3%)
$304.91
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 38.31 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.97
Bull Case
$368.63
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 40.2
Base Case
$305.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 38.3
Bear Case
$233.54
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 28, 2026 3:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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