SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$43.29
1.65 (3.96%)
▲
5d:
-7.66%
30d:
+28.76%
90d:
+35.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMCI trades at premium valuation expecting 7.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SMCI trades at premium valuation expecting 7.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $43.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.56 to $42.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.68, while resistance sits at $51.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.68, while resistance sits at $51.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.56 -
$42.98
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($37.62)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 7.5% growth expectation is conservative given 326% recent growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.7%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.56 -
$42.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.68
Resistance Level
$51.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.85
Wall Street Target
$37.63
(-9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
122.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
326.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.5% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 10.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.76
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$48.12
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$51.73
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.47
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 24.9%)
$138.21
(+232%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 24.9%)
$81.05
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 24.9%)
$64.97
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$87.99
(+111%)
Analyst growth 70.6%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$79.99
(+92%)
Market implied 70.6%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$31.89
(-23%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 08, 2026 11:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
SELL
2025-12-31
John Boozman
BUY
2025-12-11
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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
