Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$36.85
1.21 (3.40%)
â˛
5d:
-5.34%
30d:
-3.74%
90d:
+26.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $39.35 · last confirmed Sep 15, 2026
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SMCI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SMCI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.20
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.21
16.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $36.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.22 to $39.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 434.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.36, while resistance sits at $41.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.38 (+15.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.36, while resistance sits at $41.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.38 (+15.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$35.22 -
$39.34
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.22 -
$39.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.36
Resistance Level
$41.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.57
Wall Street Target
$42.38
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
434.7%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 9.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.68
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$30.78
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$28.14
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â10)
$36.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.3%)
$139.10
(+278%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$52.13
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$44.31
(+20%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.16
Bull Case
$60.42
(+64%)
Analyst growth 54.1%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$54.93
(+49%)
Market implied 54.1%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$24.24
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$48.21
(+30.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 17, 2026 12:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
