SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$30.63
-1.05 (-3.31%)
▼
5d:
-0.1%
30d:
-19.8%
90d:
+37.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.42
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.52
18.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $30.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.77 to $42.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 326.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.71, while resistance sits at $36.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.71, while resistance sits at $36.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$29.77 -
$42.95
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($37.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.77 -
$42.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.71
Resistance Level
$36.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.66
Wall Street Target
$37.25
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
122.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
326.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.93
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$29.24
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$28.56
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$30.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.1%)
$125.89
(+311%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 22.1%)
$55.82
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 22.1%)
$47.45
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$58.17
(+90%)
Analyst growth 66.9%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$52.88
(+73%)
Market implied 66.9%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$21.54
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$32.98
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 28, 2026 1:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
SELL
2025-12-31
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
