SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$28.40
0.67 (2.42%)
▲
5d:
-5.65%
30d:
+2.71%
90d:
+3.65%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
7d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.50
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.84
16.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $28.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.84 to $31.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 326.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.77, while resistance sits at $32.59.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.81 (+47.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.77, while resistance sits at $32.59.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.81 (+47.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.84 -
$31.15
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.1% below Wall St target ($37.81)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.84 -
$31.15
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.77
Resistance Level
$32.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.76
Wall Street Target
$37.81
(+47.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
122.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
326.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.49
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$21.47
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$19.62
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$25.54
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 16.7%)
$109.62
(+327%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 16.7%)
$40.88
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 16.7%)
$34.75
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.81
Bull Case
$57.26
(+102%)
Analyst growth 83.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$52.05
(+83%)
Market implied 83.0%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$19.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$33.45
(+30.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
