Is SMCI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SMCI is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of SMCI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SMCI to be between $32.79 and $39.53. The current price is $40.10.

What is the analyst price target for SMCI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SMCI is $42.38. This implies a potential upside of 5.7% from current levels.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock

ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS

$40.10

2.72 (7.28%) ▲

5d: +5.89%

30d: +6.62%

90d: +25.43%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your SMCI Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $39.59 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$71.92

Based on 8.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$44.66

10.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $40.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.79 to $39.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 434.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.63, while resistance sits at $41.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.3% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $32.79 - $39.53

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 51.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.3%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.38)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $32.79 - $39.53

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $35.63

Resistance Level $41.53

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.23

Wall Street Target $42.38 (+5.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 93.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 434.7%

Profit Margin 5.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 8.2 vs 10.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $37.61 (-6%)

2-Year Target $35.28 (-12%)

3-Year Target $33.09 (-18%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 8→10) $40.19 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.3%) $138.96 (+247%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 12.3%) $56.73 (+42%)

Bear: (PE: 7.0, Growth: 12.3%) $48.22 (+20%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 11.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.13

Bull Case $63.98 (+60%)

Analyst growth 55.6%, PE expands to 13.1

Base Case $58.16 (+45%)

Market implied 55.6%, PE stable at 11.9

Bear Case $25.42 (-37%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 10.0

Stabilization Target: $48.70 (+21.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +21.4%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:02 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.

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