SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$26.87
-0.13 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
-6.59%
30d:
-23.44%
90d:
-29.82%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
Protect SMCI Gains
Updated Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$28.90 – $39.33
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.5x
CHEAP
vs 9.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$43.60
+62.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$25.70 / $33.50
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.33
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.43
36.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $26.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.90 to $39.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.5) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 581.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.70, while resistance sits at $33.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.60 (+62.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.70, while resistance sits at $33.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.60 (+62.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$28.90 -
$39.33
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$28.90 -
$39.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$25.70
Resistance Level
$33.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.3% below Wall St target ($43.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.52
Wall Street Target
$43.60
(+62.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
297.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
581.3%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.5 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$21.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$19.58
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→10)
$33.73
(+26%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$136.83
(+409%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$38.01
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$32.30
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.74
Bull Case
$30.50
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.7%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$27.73
(+3%)
Market implied 2.7%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$18.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$46.26
(+72.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+72.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SMCI)
Bullish
18 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
8
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
10 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 15, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits is currently flooded with bullish sentiment towards $SMCI, with some users discussing potential insider buying and increasing institutional positions. No new news articles were found.
Key Retail Themes:
Insider buying
Institutional interest
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 7:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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