Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$32.99
-0.73 (-2.18%)
▼
5d:
+4.28%
30d:
-20.54%
90d:
+10.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 22, 2026 at $33.72 · last confirmed Oct 23, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.76
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.32
23.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $32.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.20 to $42.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 434.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.92, while resistance sits at $41.38.
Market Sentiment: SMCI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.27 (+28.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.92, while resistance sits at $41.38.
Market Sentiment: SMCI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.27 (+28.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.20 -
$42.94
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.3% below Wall St target ($43.27)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.20 -
$42.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.92
Resistance Level
$41.38
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.92
Wall Street Target
$43.27
(+28.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
434.7%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.35
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.31
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$24.58
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$34.44
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$136.83
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$47.70
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$40.55
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.26
Bull Case
$58.45
(+73%)
Analyst growth 49.4%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$53.14
(+58%)
Market implied 49.4%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$24.19
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$47.24
(+40.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
