SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$33.32
-2.14 (-6.03%)
▼
5d:
+8.01%
30d:
-0.42%
90d:
+54.4%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.42
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.52
11.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $33.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.99 to $43.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.71, while resistance sits at $44.95. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.71, while resistance sits at $44.95. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$29.99 -
$43.41
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.99 -
$43.41
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.71
Resistance Level
$44.95
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.51
Wall Street Target
$37.25
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
122.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
326.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.49
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$33.65
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$33.82
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.48
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.1%)
$125.89
(+278%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 22.1%)
$60.73
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 22.1%)
$51.62
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$56.30
(+59%)
Analyst growth 66.9%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$51.18
(+44%)
Market implied 66.9%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$20.85
(-41%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
SELL
2025-12-31
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
