SMTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$156.14
6.39 (4.27%)
▲
5d:
-10.64%
30d:
-6.13%
90d:
+116.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 26, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMTC is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMTC is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $156.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.41 to $167.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 71.5) compared to its historical average (47.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $145.91, while resistance sits at $177.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.25 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $145.91, while resistance sits at $177.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.25 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$152.41 -
$167.11
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($205.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 14.6% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$152.41 -
$167.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.91
Resistance Level
$177.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
71.47
Wall Street Target
$205.25
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
-3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.6% premium
PE vs Historical
71.5 vs 47.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.94
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$205.06
(+31%)
3-Year Target
$235.00
(+51%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 71→48)
PE COMPRESSION
$156.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 71.5, Growth: 28.9%)
$334.41
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 28.9%)
$101.90
(-35%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 28.9%)
$86.62
(-45%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 30, 2026 12:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Walsh Jr
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-22
Hong Q Hou
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Martin Burvill
SELL
2500 shares
2026-04-09
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
