Semtech (SMTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$144.35
7.62 (5.57%)
▲
5d:
+5.98%
30d:
-17.41%
90d:
+39.4%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 23, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMTC trades at premium valuation expecting 6.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SMTC trades at premium valuation expecting 6.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $144.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.01 to $189.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 66.1) compared to its historical average (54.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $122.01, while resistance sits at $168.90. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.07 (+50.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $122.01, while resistance sits at $168.90. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.07 (+50.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$145.01 -
$189.03
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
94.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 50.4% below Wall St target ($217.07)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.6% growth which is achievable
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.01 -
$189.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.01
Resistance Level
$168.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
66.08
Wall Street Target
$217.07
(+50.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.6% premium
PE vs Historical
66.1 vs 54.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.88
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$164.03
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$174.86
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 66→55)
PE COMPRESSION
$144.49
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 66.1, Growth: 28.9%)
$309.16
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$92.92
(-36%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$78.98
(-45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 22.62 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.38
Bull Case
$174.30
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case
$144.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$110.43
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 3:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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