UPS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$108.54
-1.68 (-1.52%)
▼
5d:
+1.73%
30d:
+8.66%
90d:
+6.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$159.18
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $108.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.11 to $107.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $110.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UPS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $110.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UPS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$98.11 -
$107.42
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($112.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -1.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.11 -
$107.42
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.15
Resistance Level
$110.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.56
Wall Street Target
$112.88
(+4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.2%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 13.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.65
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$108.76
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$108.87
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$108.36
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$247.61
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 12.2%)
$153.28
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 12.2%)
$130.29
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.18
Bull Case
$157.00
(+45%)
Analyst growth 29.5%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$142.72
(+32%)
Market implied 29.5%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$74.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 07, 2026 11:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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