Watsco (WSO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WSO - Watsco, Inc.
$295.91
-3.59 (-1.20%)
âŧ
5d:
+5.72%
30d:
-3.09%
90d:
-20.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WSO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WSO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$453.22
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$281.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WSO is currently trading at $295.91, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $290.99 to $316.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (26.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $303.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WSO scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.90 (+25.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $303.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WSO scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.90 (+25.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$290.99 -
$316.18
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($369.90)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$290.99 -
$316.18
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$277.34
Resistance Level
$303.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.30
Wall Street Target
$369.90
(+25.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.7%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 26.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$278.45
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$262.02
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$246.56
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22â27)
$296.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.9%)
$382.28
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$340.52
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$289.44
(-2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.67
Bull Case
$374.67
(+27%)
Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$340.61
(+15%)
Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$203.66
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 26.8
Stabilization Target:
$355.69
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 17, 2026 6:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WSO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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