Aaon (AAON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$68.85
-0.77 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-6.62%
30d:
-18.3%
90d:
-31.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.87
36.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $68.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.31 to $85.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (34.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 257.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $66.39, while resistance sits at $86.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.75 (+95.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $66.39, while resistance sits at $86.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.75 (+95.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$75.31 -
$85.83
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 95.7% below Wall St target ($134.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.31 -
$85.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.39
Resistance Level
$86.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.29
Wall Street Target
$134.75
(+95.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
101.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
257.9%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 34.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$55.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$50.19
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→34)
$89.48
(+30%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 49.6%)
$237.33
(+245%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 49.6%)
$230.58
(+235%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 49.6%)
$195.99
(+185%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$143.83
(+109%)
Analyst growth 87.8%, PE expands to 40.3
Base Case
$130.75
(+90%)
Market implied 87.8%, PE stable at 36.6
Bear Case
$47.34
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.3 to 34.4
Stabilization Target:
$122.75
(+78.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+78.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 8:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
