Aaon (AAON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$75.54
-4.25 (-5.33%)
▼
5d:
-4.86%
30d:
-13.84%
90d:
-40.61%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -16.0% annual earnings decline despite 258% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -16.0% annual earnings decline despite 258% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.65
29.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $75.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.63 to $86.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (36.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 257.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.00 (+89.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.00 (+89.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$75.63 -
$86.53
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 89.3% below Wall St target ($143.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.63 -
$86.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.50
Resistance Level
$81.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.41
Wall Street Target
$143.00
(+89.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
101.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
257.9%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 36.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.99
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$61.19
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$55.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→36)
$92.85
(+23%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.4, Growth: 49.0%)
$249.81
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 49.0%)
$235.56
(+212%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 49.0%)
$200.23
(+165%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$162.98
(+116%)
Analyst growth 85.7%, PE expands to 46.2
Base Case
$148.17
(+96%)
Market implied 85.7%, PE stable at 42.0
Bear Case
$54.26
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 36.1
Stabilization Target:
$127.36
(+68.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+68.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 7:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
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