AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$129.45
-6.71 (-4.93%)
▼
5d:
-1.38%
30d:
-2.22%
90d:
+61.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $129.45, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.80 to $140.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.3) is in line with its historical norms (39.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.61, while resistance sits at $139.87. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.50 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.61, while resistance sits at $139.87. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.50 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$128.80 -
$140.88
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($143.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.80 -
$140.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.96
(8.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.61
Resistance Level
$139.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.32
Wall Street Target
$143.50
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
39.3 vs 39.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.32
(0%)
2-Year Target
$129.19
(0%)
3-Year Target
$129.06
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→39)
$129.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.3, Growth: 45.7%)
$400.09
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 45.7%)
$221.60
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 45.7%)
$188.36
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 65.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.98
Bull Case
$156.31
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 68.6
Base Case
$129.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 65.4
Bear Case
$99.03
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 58.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.3 to 39.4
Stabilization Target:
$129.70
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
Casey Kidwell
SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
