AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$112.40
0.20 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
+2.23%
30d:
-12.63%
90d:
+20.16%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $112.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.89 to $133.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 34.1) compared to its historical average (39.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $103.98, while resistance sits at $129.50.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.50 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $103.98, while resistance sits at $129.50.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.50 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$113.89 -
$133.30
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($143.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$113.89 -
$133.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.08
(11.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.98
Resistance Level
$129.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.08
Wall Street Target
$143.50
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.1 vs 39.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.14
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$102.32
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$97.72
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→39)
$112.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.1, Growth: 45.7%)
$346.74
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 45.7%)
$221.60
(+98%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 45.7%)
$188.36
(+68%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (55x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 54.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.04
Bull Case
$135.47
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 57.7
Base Case
$112.19
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 55.0
Bear Case
$85.83
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 49.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.1 to 39.1
Stabilization Target:
$128.72
(+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
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SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
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SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
