AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$76.19
0.09 (0.12%)
▲
5d:
-7.15%
30d:
-24.58%
90d:
-46.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.65
28.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $76.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.74 to $102.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (37.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 257.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.00 (+87.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.00 (+87.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$82.74 -
$102.79
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 87.7% below Wall St target ($143.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.74 -
$102.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.34
Resistance Level
$91.14
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.60
Wall Street Target
$143.00
(+87.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
101.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
257.9%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 37.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$61.71
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$55.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→37)
$95.68
(+26%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: 49.0%)
$251.96
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 49.0%)
$233.93
(+207%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 49.0%)
$198.84
(+161%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$162.27
(+113%)
Analyst growth 93.8%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$147.52
(+94%)
Market implied 93.8%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$51.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 37.2
Stabilization Target:
$131.24
(+72.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+72.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 26, 2026 12:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
Casey Kidwell
SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
