AAON
Aaon Inc
AIR-COND & WARM AIR HEATG EQUIP & COMM & INDL REFRIG EQUIP
Aaon (AAON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$80.25
+1.45 (+1.84%)
â˛
5d:
+40.32%
30d:
+3.82%
90d:
-8.9%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
0d
Protect AAON Gains
Updated Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$65.90 â $83.59
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.9x
CHEAP
vs 33.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$117.50
+46.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$53.13 / $85.99
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AAON is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -14.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 11, 2026 at $76.23 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$186.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.08
30.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $80.25, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.90 to $83.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (33.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 124.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $85.99.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.50 (+46.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $85.99.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.50 (+46.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$65.90 -
$83.59
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$65.90 -
$83.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$53.13
Resistance Level
$85.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.4% below Wall St target ($117.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.90
Wall Street Target
$117.50
(+46.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
84.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
124.3%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 33.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.22
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$65.00
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$58.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21â34)
$93.78
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 33.4%)
$190.72
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 33.4%)
$181.24
(+126%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 33.4%)
$154.06
(+92%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.44
Bull Case
$136.41
(+70%)
Analyst growth 57.4%, PE expands to 35.5
Base Case
$124.01
(+55%)
Market implied 57.4%, PE stable at 32.3
Bear Case
$53.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 33.5
Stabilization Target:
$128.64
(+60.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+60.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AAON)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
AAON reported record net sales and identified accounting errors leading to a revenue understatement in the first half. The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance.
Key Retail Themes:
revenue growth
accounting errors
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 15, 2026 12:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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