AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$102.86
-8.56 (-7.68%)
▼
5d:
-8.32%
30d:
-22.87%
90d:
+9.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AAON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$166.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.23
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $102.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.34 to $131.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.6) compared to its historical average (39.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.33 (+35.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.33 (+35.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$110.34 -
$131.15
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 35.8% below Wall St target ($151.33)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.34 -
$131.15
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.84
Resistance Level
$118.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.63
Wall Street Target
$151.33
(+35.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.6 vs 39.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.96
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$98.87
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$93.14
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→39)
$111.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.6, Growth: 51.1%)
$376.04
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 51.1%)
$242.15
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 51.1%)
$205.83
(+85%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (54x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 54.35 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.05
Bull Case
$134.54
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 57.1
Base Case
$111.42
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 54.4
Bear Case
$85.24
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 48.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.6 to 39.0
Stabilization Target:
$133.18
(+19.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 20, 2026 2:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
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SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
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5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
