Aaon (AAON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$84.35
1.08 (1.30%)
▲
5d:
-1.16%
30d:
+8.17%
90d:
-23.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$170.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.75
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $84.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.46 to $83.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.1) compared to its historical average (35.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 257.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $76.55, while resistance sits at $91.52.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.75 (+59.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $76.55, while resistance sits at $91.52.
Market Sentiment: AAON scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.75 (+59.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$75.46 -
$83.30
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
38th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
36.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 38th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.8% below Wall St target ($134.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.46 -
$83.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.28
(9.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.55
Resistance Level
$91.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.11
Wall Street Target
$134.75
(+59.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
101.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
257.9%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.1 vs 35.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.92
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$68.32
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$61.49
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→35)
$89.77
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.1, Growth: 48.4%)
$275.89
(+227%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 48.4%)
$225.41
(+167%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 48.4%)
$191.60
(+127%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$168.65
(+100%)
Analyst growth 84.1%, PE expands to 48.2
Base Case
$153.32
(+82%)
Market implied 84.1%, PE stable at 43.8
Bear Case
$56.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.1 to 35.2
Stabilization Target:
$123.14
(+46.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 6:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
