AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$95.55
2.99 (3.23%)
▲
5d:
+1.93%
30d:
-12.62%
90d:
+3.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.84
7.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $95.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.35 to $124.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.1) compared to its historical average (38.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.66, while resistance sits at $109.41. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.33 (+58.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.66, while resistance sits at $109.41. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.33 (+58.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$98.35 -
$124.53
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 58.4% below Wall St target ($151.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.35 -
$124.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.66
Resistance Level
$109.41
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.09
Wall Street Target
$151.33
(+58.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.1 vs 38.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$77.74
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$70.12
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→38)
$95.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.1, Growth: 50.9%)
$322.48
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 50.9%)
$238.02
(+149%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 50.9%)
$202.31
(+112%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 42.92 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.23
Bull Case
$115.38
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 45.1
Base Case
$95.55
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 42.9
Bear Case
$73.10
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 38.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.1 to 38.3
Stabilization Target:
$130.30
(+36.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 11:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
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SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
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5225 shares
2026-03-12
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