BGC Group (BGC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGC - BGC Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$11.74
-0.10 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
+1.16%
30d:
-3.02%
90d:
+0.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.30
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGC is currently trading at $11.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.47 to $12.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BGC scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+35.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BGC scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+35.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.47 -
$12.13
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.2% below Wall St target ($16.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.47 -
$12.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.09
Resistance Level
$11.86
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.39
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+35.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.13
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$12.43
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$12.74
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.89
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$44.98
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$16.75
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$14.23
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$25.59
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$23.26
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.1
Bear Case
$7.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BGC price and gamma walls.
