BGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGC - BGC Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$11.85
0.97 (8.92%)
▲
5d:
+5.8%
30d:
+2.29%
90d:
+6.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BGC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BGC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.51
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGC is currently trading at $11.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.71 to $11.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: BGC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+30.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: BGC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+30.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.71 -
$11.64
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
34.3%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.71 -
$11.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.13
Resistance Level
$12.03
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.52
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.31
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$12.79
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$13.29
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.1%)
$44.53
(+276%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 12.1%)
$16.69
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$14.19
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$23.94
(+102%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.9
Base Case
$21.76
(+84%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$7.40
(-38%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 6:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean-Pierre Aubin
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BGC price and gamma walls.
