Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$272.18
+0.09 (+0.03%)
▲
5d:
-2.78%
30d:
+17.91%
90d:
+6.39%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
Protect ERIE Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (37%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$229.48 – $268.79
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.4x
FAIR
vs 20.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$115.00
-57.7% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$248.18 / $294.07
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ERIE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$326.86
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$202.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERIE is currently trading at $272.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.48 to $268.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERIE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $248.18, while resistance sits at $294.07.
Market Sentiment: ERIE scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $115.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERIE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $248.18, while resistance sits at $294.07.
Market Sentiment: ERIE scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $115.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$229.48 -
$268.79
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
37.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$229.48 -
$268.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.90
(5.1%)
Support Level
$248.18
Resistance Level
$294.07
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ERIE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 57.7% above Wall St target ($115.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with 0.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.42
Wall Street Target
$115.00
(-57.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 20.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$272.72
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$273.27
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$273.82
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$272.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.7%)
$303.13
(+11%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.7%)
$294.83
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 3.7%)
$250.61
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.09
Bull Case
$359.75
(+32%)
Analyst growth 20.2%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$327.05
(+20%)
Market implied 20.2%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$185.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ERIE)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Apr 21, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages indicate bullish sentiment towards $ERIE with mentions of $GLXY, $XYZ, $ERIE, and $LYB. No recent news articles were available.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 5:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERIE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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