Heritage Commerce (HTBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$13.45
+0.40 (+3.07%)
â˛
5d:
+0.6%
30d:
+11.99%
90d:
+4.91%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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Updated Apr 17, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.6x
FAIR
vs 12.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$14.50
+7.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
UNKNOWN Vol
UNKNOWN volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.47 / $13.74
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HTBK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.85
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTBK is currently trading at $13.45, which is considered fair based on recent price action. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTBK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HTBK scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTBK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HTBK scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
Support Level
$12.47
Resistance Level
$13.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 17, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding HTBK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.60
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.2%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.58
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.72
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$13.86
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 4.0%)
$24.68
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 4.0%)
$15.12
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 4.0%)
$12.85
(-5%)
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 10:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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