IVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$7.39
-0.02 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
-0.67%
30d:
-5.86%
90d:
-11.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: IVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: IVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.53
Based on 1.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $7.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.56 to $8.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.9) is in line with its historical norms (3.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.56 -
$8.03
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.56 -
$8.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.27
Resistance Level
$8.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.86
Wall Street Target
$8.50
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
557.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
86.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 3.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.50
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$7.61
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$7.73
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -1.5%)
$37.98
(+414%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: -1.5%)
$7.07
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: -1.5%)
$6.01
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$9.88
(+34%)
Analyst growth 21.2%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$8.98
(+22%)
Market implied 21.2%, PE stable at 4.7
Bear Case
$5.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 9:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robert Waldner
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-27
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