Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$5.71
-0.11 (-1.89%)
▼
5d:
-10.92%
30d:
-20.03%
90d:
-27.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: IVR is down 10.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: IVR is down 10.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.60
Based on -3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $5.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.27 to $7.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.3) compared to its historical average (3.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.17 (+43.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.17 (+43.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.27 -
$7.26
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($8.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.27 -
$7.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.65
Resistance Level
$6.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.27
Wall Street Target
$8.17
(+43.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
557.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
86.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.3 vs 3.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.45
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5.21
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$4.97
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$5.77
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -10.4%)
$25.95
(+354%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.3, Growth: -10.4%)
$4.16
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.8, Growth: -10.4%)
$3.54
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (4x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$7.07
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 4.1
Base Case
$6.43
(+13%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 3.7
Bear Case
$3.96
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.3 to 3.8
Stabilization Target:
$6.63
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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