IVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$7.52
-0.03 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
+0.53%
30d:
-1.57%
90d:
-4.93%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: IVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: IVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.45
Based on -3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $7.52, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.36 to $7.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 4.3) compared to its historical average (3.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$7.36 -
$7.87
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.17)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.9% growth which is achievable
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.36 -
$7.87
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.33
Resistance Level
$7.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.31
Wall Street Target
$8.17
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
557.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
86.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
4.3 vs 3.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.89
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$8.28
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$8.68
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.45
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -10.4%)
$25.53
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.3, Growth: -10.4%)
$5.48
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: -10.4%)
$4.66
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$9.23
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.1%, PE expands to 5.3
Base Case
$8.39
(+12%)
Market implied 11.1%, PE stable at 4.8
Bear Case
$5.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 1:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robert Waldner
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-27
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