Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$6.80
-0.11 (-1.59%)
▼
5d:
-4.23%
30d:
-8.72%
90d:
-15.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IVR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IVR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.60
Based on -3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $6.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.16 to $7.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.9) is in line with its historical norms (3.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.17 (+20.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.17 (+20.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.16 -
$7.53
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.1% below Wall St target ($8.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.16 -
$7.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.80
Resistance Level
$7.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.90
Wall Street Target
$8.17
(+20.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
557.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
86.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 3.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.89
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$6.98
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$7.07
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.89
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -10.4%)
$25.65
(+277%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: -10.4%)
$4.96
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: -10.4%)
$4.21
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (4x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$8.39
(+23%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 4.8
Base Case
$7.63
(+12%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 4.4
Bear Case
$4.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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