NCMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.
$2.57
0.02 (0.98%)
▲
5d:
-6.04%
30d:
-31.96%
90d:
-14.21%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NCMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NCMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCMI is currently trading at $2.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.09 to $4.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (33.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $2.16, while resistance sits at $4.02.
Market Sentiment: NCMI scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.81 (+89.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $2.16, while resistance sits at $4.02.
Market Sentiment: NCMI scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.81 (+89.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.09 -
$4.23
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 89.5% below Wall St target ($4.81)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 33% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.09 -
$4.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.16
Resistance Level
$4.02
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.17
Wall Street Target
$4.81
(+89.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 33.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.06
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.85
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→34)
$2.96
(+16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.2, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.85
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.76
(-31%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.49
(-41%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 33.8
Stabilization Target:
$4.06
(+59.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+59.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 11:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Vg Woods
SELL
12066 shares
2026-04-01
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