National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.
$2.11
-0.01 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
-6.64%
30d:
-15.94%
90d:
-44.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCMI is currently trading at $2.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.23 to $2.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (31.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.00, while resistance sits at $2.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.75 (+125.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.00, while resistance sits at $2.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.75 (+125.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.23 -
$2.55
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 125.1% below Wall St target ($4.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.23 -
$2.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.00
Resistance Level
$2.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.58
Wall Street Target
$4.75
(+125.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 31.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.71
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→32)
$2.78
(+32%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.78
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.54
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.31
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 31.8
Stabilization Target:
$3.82
(+80.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+80.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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