National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.
$1.89
-0.05 (-2.58%)
▼
5d:
-8.25%
30d:
-14.09%
90d:
-51.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCMI is currently trading at $1.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.06 to $2.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (30.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCMI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.44 (+134.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCMI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.44 (+134.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.06 -
$2.30
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 134.8% below Wall St target ($4.44)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.06 -
$2.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1.87
Resistance Level
$2.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.75
Wall Street Target
$4.44
(+134.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 30.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.53
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.38
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→31)
$2.69
(+43%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.74
(+-8%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.38
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.17
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 30.8
Stabilization Target:
$3.70
(+95.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+95.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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