National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.
$2.42
-0.04 (-1.63%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.81%
30d:
+9.01%
90d:
-32.4%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NCMI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -15.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NCMI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -15.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCMI is currently trading at $2.42, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.24 to $3.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (32.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.35, while resistance sits at $2.65.
Market Sentiment: NCMI scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.75 (+96.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.35, while resistance sits at $2.65.
Market Sentiment: NCMI scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.75 (+96.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$2.24 -
$3.38
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 96.3% below Wall St target ($4.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.24 -
$3.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.35
Resistance Level
$2.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.17
Wall Street Target
$4.75
(+96.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 32.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â33)
$2.87
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.76
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.76
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -29.4%)
$1.50
(-38%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 32.8
Stabilization Target:
$3.94
(+62.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+62.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Vg Woods
SELL
12066 shares
2026-04-01
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