NCMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.
$3.92
-0.08 (-1.88%)
▼
5d:
+2.49%
30d:
+9.36%
90d:
+15.83%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCMI is currently trading at $3.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.52 to $3.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.5) compared to its historical average (34.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NCMI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.25 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NCMI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.25 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.52 -
$3.86
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.6% below Wall St target ($5.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.52 -
$3.86
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.00
Resistance Level
$3.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.52
Wall Street Target
$5.25
(+31.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
-3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.5 vs 34.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.69
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$3.41
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$3.15
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→35)
$3.98
(0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.5 to 34.8
Stabilization Target:
$5.05
(+26.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Vg Woods
SELL
12066 shares
2026-04-01
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