SCVL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SCVL - Shoe Carnival Inc
$17.04
-0.35 (-2.01%)
▼
5d:
-1.16%
30d:
-0.47%
90d:
-15.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SCVL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SCVL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.96
Based on -9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCVL is currently trading at $17.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.20 to $18.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.00, while resistance sits at $17.92.
Market Sentiment: SCVL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+29.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.00, while resistance sits at $17.92.
Market Sentiment: SCVL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+29.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.20 -
$18.18
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.1% below Wall St target ($22.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with -2.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.20 -
$18.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.00
Resistance Level
$17.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.51
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+29.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.9%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.26
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.49
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$17.71
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.08
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -22.1%)
$23.64
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: -22.1%)
$12.42
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: -22.1%)
$10.56
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$20.79
(+18%)
Analyst growth 9.6%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$18.90
(+7%)
Market implied 9.6%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$11.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 8:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCVL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
W Kerry Jackson
BUY
31000 shares
2026-04-02
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