SCVL
Shoe Carnival Inc
RETAIL-SHOE STORES
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$17.43
+0.78 (+4.68%)
â˛
5d:
+1.4%
30d:
+6.93%
90d:
-4.02%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (87%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.8x
FAIR
vs 11.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$22.00
+26.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
UNKNOWN Vol
UNKNOWN volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$16.07 / $17.92
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SCVL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.96
Based on -9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCVL is currently trading at $17.43, which is considered fair based on recent price action. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SCVL scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SCVL scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
86.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
Support Level
$16.07
Resistance Level
$17.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($22.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -2.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.78
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.9%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.78
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$18.13
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$18.50
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -22.1%)
$23.65
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -22.1%)
$12.71
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -22.1%)
$10.80
(-38%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SCVL)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
May 21, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Shoe Carnival reported a net sales decline of 2.2% for the Shoe Carnival banner and 3.1% for the Shoe Station banner in the first quarter of 2026. The company recorded pretax charges totaling $13.6 million related to a CEO transition and strategic review, resulting in a GAAP diluted loss per share of $(0.21) and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.23.
Key Retail Themes:
Financial Performance
Strategic Initiatives
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCVL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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