TRAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRAK - ReposiTrak, Inc.
$8.62
0.06 (0.70%)
▲
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
-6.2%
90d:
-3.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRAK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRAK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.01
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.94
13.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRAK is currently trading at $8.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.47 to $9.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (23.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.77, while resistance sits at $9.16.
Market Sentiment: TRAK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+86.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.77, while resistance sits at $9.16.
Market Sentiment: TRAK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+86.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.47 -
$9.30
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
44th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 44th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 86.9% below Wall St target ($16.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.47 -
$9.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.94
(10.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.77
Resistance Level
$9.16
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.91
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+86.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 23.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.15
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$7.76
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$7.39
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→23)
$8.57
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 16.2%)
$14.05
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.2%)
$13.44
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 16.2%)
$11.42
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$10.42
(+22%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$9.47
(+11%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$5.54
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 23.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.93
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 28, 2026 11:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randall K Fields
SELL
7500 shares
2026-03-23
Randall K Fields
SELL
1428 shares
2026-03-17
Randall K Fields
SELL
6072 shares
2026-03-16
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