Textron (TXT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXT - Textron, Inc.
$81.00
1.80 (2.27%)
▲
5d:
+2.05%
30d:
-8.88%
90d:
-13.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $79.07 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.69
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.63
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXT is currently trading at $81.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.47 to $88.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (12.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.12, while resistance sits at $83.75.
Market Sentiment: TXT scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.07 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.12, while resistance sits at $83.75.
Market Sentiment: TXT scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.07 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.47 -
$88.03
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($102.07)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.47 -
$88.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.12
Resistance Level
$83.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.15
Wall Street Target
$102.07
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 12.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.92
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$74.96
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$72.11
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$80.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$208.49
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$115.28
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 12.5%)
$97.99
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.27
Bull Case
$120.07
(+48%)
Analyst growth 37.8%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$109.15
(+35%)
Market implied 37.8%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$53.86
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 12.5
Stabilization Target:
$90.79
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 7:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXT price and gamma walls.
