Is TXT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TXT is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TXT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TXT to be between $88.93 and $93.14. The current price is $89.42.

What is the analyst price target for TXT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TXT is $103.26. This implies a potential upside of 15.5% from current levels.

TXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TXT - Textron, Inc.

AIRCRAFT & PARTS

$89.42

-1.49 (-1.64%) ▼

5d: -4.71%

30d: -2.09%

90d: -2.16%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TXT Gains

Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 28, 2026 13d

Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$135.75

Based on 8.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$84.29

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TXT is currently trading at $89.42, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.93 to $93.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: TXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.26 (+15.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $88.93 - $93.14

Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 54.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($103.26)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $88.93 - $93.14

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $88.84

Resistance Level $94.50

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Jul 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.27

Wall Street Target $103.26 (+15.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 10.6%

Profit Margin 6.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 12.3 vs 12.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $88.44 (-1%)

2-Year Target $87.46 (-2%)

3-Year Target $86.50 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→13) $89.52 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.0%) $222.85 (+149%)

Base: (SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 12.0%) $125.56 (+40%)

Bear: (PE: 10.4, Growth: 12.0%) $106.72 (+19%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 17.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.24

Bull Case $139.07 (+56%)

Analyst growth 39.1%, PE expands to 19.1

Base Case $126.42 (+41%)

Market implied 39.1%, PE stable at 17.4

Bear Case $61.82 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 12.7

Stabilization Target: $92.54 (+3.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.5%

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Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

E Robert Lupone SELL 28056 shares 2026-02-17

Mark S Bamford SELL 19808 shares 2026-02-17

Julie G Duffy SELL 19857 shares 2026-02-13

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