Is TXT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TXT is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TXT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TXT to be between $89.56 and $92.99. The current price is $86.40.

What is the analyst price target for TXT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TXT is $103.45. This implies a potential upside of 19.7% from current levels.

TXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TXT - Textron, Inc.

AIRCRAFT & PARTS

$86.40

-0.54 (-0.62%) ▼

5d: -7.84%

30d: -4.26%

90d: -2.95%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 23, 2026 28d

Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 7.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$136.24

Based on 8.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$84.59

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TXT is currently trading at $86.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.56 to $92.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.45 (+19.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $89.56 - $92.99

Company Quality Score 60/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($103.45)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.8% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $89.56 - $92.99

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $85.94

Resistance Level $95.03

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Jun 23, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.84

Wall Street Target $103.45 (+19.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 10.6%

Profit Margin 6.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.8 vs 12.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $84.41 (-2%)

2-Year Target $82.47 (-5%)

3-Year Target $80.57 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→13) $86.42 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.1%) $223.59 (+159%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 12.1%) $121.56 (+41%)

Bear: (PE: 10.1, Growth: 12.1%) $103.33 (+20%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 16.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.24

Bull Case $133.17 (+54%)

Analyst growth 39.2%, PE expands to 18.3

Base Case $121.06 (+40%)

Market implied 39.2%, PE stable at 16.6

Bear Case $59.12 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 12.7

Stabilization Target: $92.67 (+7.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +7.3%

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Last updated: June 24, 2026 4:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:04 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

E Robert Lupone SELL 28056 shares 2026-02-17

Mark S Bamford SELL 19808 shares 2026-02-17

Julie G Duffy SELL 19857 shares 2026-02-13

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