Frontier Group (ULCC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ULCC - Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$6.19
0.22 (3.69%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+8.6%
90d:
-20.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ULCC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ULCC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.99
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.07
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ULCC is currently trading at $6.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.65 to $6.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (23.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULCC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.55, while resistance sits at $6.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ULCC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULCC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.55, while resistance sits at $6.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ULCC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.65 -
$6.05
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ULCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.56)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.65 -
$6.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.55
Resistance Level
$6.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.95
Wall Street Target
$6.56
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Profit Margin
-9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 23.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.01
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.51
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→24)
$6.76
(+9%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 23.9
Stabilization Target:
$9.27
(+49.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ULCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced ULCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ULCC price and gamma walls.
