Upstart (UPST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$25.59
0.49 (1.95%)
▲
5d:
-10.27%
30d:
-12.06%
90d:
-19.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $29.43 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UPST is down 10.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UPST is down 10.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.91
46.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $25.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.54 to $30.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 211.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.00 (+56.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.00 (+56.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.54 -
$30.72
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.3% below Wall St target ($40.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.54 -
$30.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.09
Resistance Level
$31.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.36
Wall Street Target
$40.00
(+56.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
211.2%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 11.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.03
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.73
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.66
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$28.89
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 51.4%)
$236.62
(+825%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 51.4%)
$86.37
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 51.4%)
$73.41
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.39 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.78
Bull Case
$30.90
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.1
Base Case
$25.59
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$19.58
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$39.63
(+54.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+54.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UPST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPST price and gamma walls.
