Is UPST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, UPST is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of UPST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for UPST to be between $30.85 and $34.05. The current price is $31.46.

What is the analyst price target for UPST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for UPST is $41.07. This implies a potential upside of 30.5% from current levels.

UPST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock

FINANCE SERVICES

$31.46

-1.28 (-3.91%) ▼

5d: -8.36%

30d: +3.83%

90d: +15.41%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026 21d

Smart Money Accumulation

None View Scanner →

Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$79.93

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$49.63

36.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $31.46, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.85 to $34.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.07 (+30.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $30.85 - $34.05

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($41.07)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.4% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $30.85 - $34.05

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $30.99

Resistance Level $36.90

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Jul 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.35

Wall Street Target $41.07 (+30.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 44.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 209.1%

Profit Margin 4.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -8.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 9.4 vs 12.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -8.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $28.82 (-8%)

2-Year Target $26.40 (-16%)

3-Year Target $24.18 (-23%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→12) $31.54 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 42.9%) $213.63 (+579%)

Base: (SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 42.9%) $91.72 (+192%)

Bear: (PE: 7.9, Growth: 42.9%) $77.97 (+148%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 34.60 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.95

Bull Case $39.53 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.3

Base Case $32.74 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.6

Bear Case $25.05 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 12.2

Stabilization Target: $41.04 (+30.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +30.5%

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Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Natalia Mirgorodskaya SELL 866 shares 2026-02-25

Natalia Mirgorodskaya SELL 633 shares 2026-02-20

Sanjay Datta SELL 7982 shares 2026-02-20

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