Upstart (UPST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$20.56
+0.15 (+0.73%)
▲
5d:
-12.06%
30d:
-13.72%
90d:
-33.61%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
Protect UPST Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$22.02 – $24.36
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.1x
CHEAP
vs 10.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$31.19
+51.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$19.71 / $24.90
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $23.53 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.33
44.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $20.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.02 to $24.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.71, while resistance sits at $24.90.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.19 (+51.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.71, while resistance sits at $24.90.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.19 (+51.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.02 -
$24.36
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$22.02 -
$24.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$19.71
Resistance Level
$24.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.7% below Wall St target ($31.19)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.1%) - monitor closely
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.06
Wall Street Target
$31.19
(+51.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.2%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 10.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$16.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$22.51
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 55.7%)
$195.22
(+850%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 55.7%)
$69.39
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 55.7%)
$58.98
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.61
Bull Case
$44.90
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.8
Base Case
$40.82
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.5
Bear Case
$13.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$30.87
(+50.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.2%
Share UPST Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UPST)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Upstart stock hit a new 52-week low after the company cut its 2026 outlook and reported lower-than-expected revenue. The selling pressure from macroeconomic conditions and higher interest rates also impacted the stock.
Key Retail Themes:
macroeconomic conditions
interest rates
company financials
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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