Upstart (UPST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$23.85
0.19 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
-3.64%
30d:
-2.45%
90d:
-11.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
11d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 2, 2026 at $22.99 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 5.0/10
Get Alerted When UPST Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.68
48.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $23.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.19 to $25.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 211.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.21, while resistance sits at $24.95.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.38 (+62.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.21, while resistance sits at $24.95.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.38 (+62.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$23.19 -
$25.00
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.2% below Wall St target ($38.38)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.19 -
$25.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.21
Resistance Level
$24.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.62
Wall Street Target
$38.38
(+62.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
211.2%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.25
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$28.14
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 56.0%)
$239.57
(+913%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 56.0%)
$79.85
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 56.0%)
$67.87
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$52.03
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.0
Base Case
$47.30
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.3
Bear Case
$16.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$38.60
(+63.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+63.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Credit Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Credit Services by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$99 | 51 HOLD |
|
MA
Mastercard Inc |
STRONG BUY
40 analysts |
$672 | 35 SELL |
|
COF
Capital One Financial Co… |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$252 | 71 BUY |
|
V
Visa Inc. Class A |
STRONG BUY
40 analysts |
$423 | 27 SELL |
|
AXP
American Express Company |
BUY
30 analysts |
$369 | 49 HOLD |
Advanced UPST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPST price and gamma walls.
