Upstart (UPST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$22.95
-0.04 (-0.17%)
▼
5d:
-6.86%
30d:
-16.21%
90d:
-34.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Get Alerted When UPST Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.65
50.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $22.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.96 to $28.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 211.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.00 (+74.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.00 (+74.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$23.96 -
$28.71
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.3% below Wall St target ($40.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.96 -
$28.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.56
Resistance Level
$26.61
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.60
Wall Street Target
$40.00
(+74.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
211.2%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.59
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.73
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$28.13
(+23%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 51.4%)
$239.32
(+943%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 51.4%)
$77.46
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 51.4%)
$65.84
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$50.58
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.6
Base Case
$45.98
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.2
Bear Case
$15.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$38.58
(+68.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+68.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Credit Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Credit Services by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
V
Visa Inc. Class A |
STRONG BUY
41 analysts |
$419 | 51 HOLD |
|
MA
Mastercard Inc |
STRONG BUY
42 analysts |
$667 | 55 HOLD |
|
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc |
HOLD
47 analysts |
$57 | 56 HOLD |
|
AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$99 | 63 BUY |
|
COF
Capital One Financial Co… |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$259 | 52 HOLD |
Advanced UPST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPST price and gamma walls.
