UPST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$30.30
1.44 (4.99%)
â˛
5d:
-0.43%
30d:
+9.82%
90d:
+5.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $29.43 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UPST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UPST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.32
34.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $30.30, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.99 to $30.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 211.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.95, while resistance sits at $31.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.60 (+34.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.95, while resistance sits at $31.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.60 (+34.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$27.99 -
$30.86
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.0% below Wall St target ($40.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.99 -
$30.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.96
Resistance Level
$31.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.25
Wall Street Target
$40.60
(+34.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
211.2%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 11.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.06
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$25.98
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$24.06
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â12)
$30.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 42.7%)
$191.02
(+530%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 42.7%)
$88.07
(+191%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 42.7%)
$74.86
(+147%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (59x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 58.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$63.49
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 64.8
Base Case
$57.72
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 58.9
Bear Case
$19.62
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 50.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$38.31
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Natalia Mirgorodskaya
SELL
866 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced UPST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPST price and gamma walls.
