UPST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$27.44
0.40 (1.48%)
▲
5d:
+1.89%
30d:
-23.22%
90d:
-13.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.47
43.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $27.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.28 to $33.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.89, while resistance sits at $29.92.
Market Sentiment: UPST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.80 (+45.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.89, while resistance sits at $29.92.
Market Sentiment: UPST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.80 (+45.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$28.28 -
$33.86
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.0% below Wall St target ($39.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.28 -
$33.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.89
Resistance Level
$29.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.15
Wall Street Target
$39.80
(+45.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.1%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 11.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$22.23
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.00
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$29.22
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 44.3%)
$209.92
(+665%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 44.3%)
$82.49
(+201%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 44.3%)
$70.12
(+156%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.67 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.81
Bull Case
$33.13
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.4
Base Case
$27.44
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.7
Bear Case
$20.99
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 11.9
Stabilization Target:
$40.08
(+46.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Natalia Mirgorodskaya
SELL
866 shares
2026-02-25
Natalia Mirgorodskaya
SELL
633 shares
2026-02-20
Sanjay Datta
SELL
7982 shares
2026-02-20
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