VSEC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VSEC - VSE Corp
$217.58
3.07 (1.43%)
▲
5d:
-10.02%
30d:
+10.25%
90d:
+25.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: VSEC is down 10.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: VSEC is down 10.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$333.61
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$207.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VSEC is currently trading at $217.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $195.35 to $230.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.2) compared to its historical average (37.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 488.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $212.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $270.00 (+24.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $212.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $270.00 (+24.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$195.35 -
$230.37
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($270.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$195.35 -
$230.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$212.50
Resistance Level
$247.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.16
Wall Street Target
$270.00
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
488.4%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.2 vs 37.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.82
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$176.24
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$158.62
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→38)
$219.59
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.2, Growth: 17.7%)
$354.61
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.7%)
$262.05
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 17.7%)
$222.74
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 44.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.85
Bull Case
$262.73
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 47.1
Base Case
$217.58
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 44.8
Bear Case
$166.45
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 40.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.2 to 37.6
Stabilization Target:
$301.22
(+38.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VSEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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