VSEC VSE Corp SERVICES-ENGINEERING SERVICES

VSE (VSEC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$191.74
+5.15 (+2.76%) ▲
5d: +16.94% 30d: +17.39% 90d: -16.96%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
28/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$150.43 – $175.22
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
23.1x CHEAP
vs 33.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$247.67
+32.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$144.36 / $194.86
Trend: Strong Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VSEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$358.40
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$222.54
13.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: VSEC is currently trading at $191.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.43 to $175.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.1) compared to its historical average (33.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7333.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $194.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: VSEC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $247.67 (+32.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $150.43 - $175.22
Company Quality Score 28/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 23.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $150.43 - $175.22
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $144.36
Resistance Level $194.86
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.4% above its trading range)
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($247.67)
  • WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.09
Wall Street Target $247.67 (+32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 91.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 7333.8%
Profit Margin 7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History -11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical 23.1 vs 33.8 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -11.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $167.93 (-10%)
2-Year Target $151.14 (-19%)
3-Year Target $136.02 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→34) $199.13 (+7%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 23.1, Growth: 20.6%) $327.07 (+75%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.6%) $281.35 (+51%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 20.6%) $239.14 (+28%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case $377.09 (+102%)
Analyst growth 80.8%, PE expands to 46.7
Base Case $342.81 (+84%)
Market implied 80.8%, PE stable at 42.4
Bear Case $128.93 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.1 to 33.8
Stabilization Target: $273.16 (+46.4%)
PE Expansion Potential: +46.4%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (VSEC)

Bearish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 16, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Bearish sentiment dominates $VSEC on StockTwits with no new news articles available.
Key Retail Themes: Negative sentiment towards $VSEC
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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