VSEC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VSEC - VSE Corp
$205.25
-6.05 (-2.86%)
▼
5d:
-13.76%
30d:
+18.52%
90d:
-5.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: VSEC is down 13.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: VSEC is down 13.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$276.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$171.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VSEC is currently trading at $205.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.42 to $226.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 36.1) is in line with its historical norms (38.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $259.22 (+26.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $259.22 (+26.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$189.42 -
$226.21
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($259.22)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$189.42 -
$226.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$167.95
Resistance Level
$187.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.12
Wall Street Target
$259.22
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
36.1 vs 38.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.56
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$197.93
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$194.36
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→38)
$204.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.1, Growth: 30.0%)
$450.79
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 30.0%)
$271.79
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 30.0%)
$231.02
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (53x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 53.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.86
Bull Case
$247.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 55.9
Base Case
$205.25
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 53.2
Bear Case
$157.02
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 47.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 36.1 to 38.1
Stabilization Target:
$216.47
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is VSEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Markwayne Mullin
BUY
2026-02-04
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