VSE (VSEC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VSEC - VSE Corp
$167.54
6.78 (4.21%)
▲
5d:
-7.32%
30d:
-14.77%
90d:
-29.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VSEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VSEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$336.65
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$209.04
19.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VSEC is currently trading at $167.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $173.30 to $208.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.1) compared to its historical average (35.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 488.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $157.91, while resistance sits at $185.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $270.00 (+68.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $157.91, while resistance sits at $185.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $270.00 (+68.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$173.30 -
$208.88
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.0% below Wall St target ($270.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$173.30 -
$208.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$157.91
Resistance Level
$185.27
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.06
Wall Street Target
$270.00
(+68.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
488.4%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 35.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.68
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$130.22
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$117.19
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→36)
$208.56
(+30%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.1%)
$269.15
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$264.66
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$224.96
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.15
Bull Case
$194.12
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$160.76
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$122.98
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.1 to 35.7
Stabilization Target:
$286.10
(+78.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+78.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VSEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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