VSE (VSEC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VSEC - VSE Corp
$147.37
-6.30 (-4.10%)
▼
5d:
-8.78%
30d:
-17.46%
90d:
-24.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VSEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VSEC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$375.18
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$232.96
36.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VSEC is currently trading at $147.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $159.89 to $179.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (34.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 488.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $142.72, while resistance sits at $175.61. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VSEC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.11 (+67.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $142.72, while resistance sits at $175.61. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VSEC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.11 (+67.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$159.89 -
$179.48
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 67.3% below Wall St target ($257.11)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$159.89 -
$179.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.72
Resistance Level
$175.61
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.60
Wall Street Target
$257.11
(+67.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
488.4%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 34.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.30
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$124.47
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$112.03
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→35)
$209.03
(+36%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.7%)
$296.02
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 21.7%)
$277.20
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 21.7%)
$235.62
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.84
Bull Case
$185.56
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$153.67
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$117.56
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 34.7
Stabilization Target:
$286.73
(+86.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+86.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VSEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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