COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$947.74
14.23 (1.52%)
â˛
5d:
-1.39%
30d:
+2.34%
90d:
-9.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 24, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $947.82 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: COST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: COST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$800.82
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$497.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $947.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $931.81 to $959.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.7) is in line with its historical norms (43.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $925.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1077.31 (+13.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $925.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1077.31 (+13.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$931.81 -
$959.29
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1077.31)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$931.81 -
$959.29
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$925.77
Resistance Level
$978.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.74
Wall Street Target
$1077.31
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.7 vs 43.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$935.42
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$923.26
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$911.26
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42â43)
$947.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.7, Growth: 10.3%)
$1270.62
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.3%)
$610.91
(-36%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.3%)
$519.27
(-45%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.42
Bull Case
$1200.51
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.9%, PE expands to 52.9
Base Case
$1091.37
(+15%)
Market implied 16.9%, PE stable at 48.1
Bear Case
$634.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.7 to 43.4
Stabilization Target:
$985.35
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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Advanced COST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COST price and gamma walls.
