COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$951.89
-2.28 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
+1.8%
30d:
+2.94%
90d:
-6.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 24, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$798.53
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$495.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $951.89, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $926.07 to $957.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.0) is in line with its historical norms (43.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $916.76, while resistance sits at $987.55.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1076.91 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $916.76, while resistance sits at $987.55.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1076.91 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$926.07 -
$957.13
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1076.91)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$926.07 -
$957.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$916.76
Resistance Level
$987.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.95
Wall Street Target
$1076.91
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.0 vs 43.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$939.52
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$927.30
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$915.25
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→44)
$951.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$1274.82
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.2%)
$629.97
(-34%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 10.2%)
$535.48
(-44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.87
Bull Case
$1198.62
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 52.8
Base Case
$1089.65
(+15%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 48.0
Bear Case
$648.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.9 to 43.6
Stabilization Target:
$989.35
(+3.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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