ECPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$96.28
2.20 (2.34%)
▲
5d:
+1.94%
30d:
+6.26%
90d:
+15.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.61
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $96.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.65 to $93.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.33 (+17.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.33 (+17.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$88.65 -
$93.92
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$88.65 -
$93.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.71
Resistance Level
$98.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.82
Wall Street Target
$113.33
(+17.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.07
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$101.95
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$104.90
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$96.88
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.6%)
$374.64
(+289%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 8.6%)
$123.29
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 8.6%)
$104.80
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.84
Bull Case
$113.75
(+18%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$103.41
(+7%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$63.97
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan B Bell
SELL
260 shares
2026-03-03
Ryan B Bell
SELL
7240 shares
2026-03-02
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